In a recent international study, it has been projected that carbon emissions in India will witness a significant increase of 8.2% in 2023. The research, which also highlights a 4% rise in carbon emissions in China, sheds light on the concerning global trends in carbon emissions.
The study, conducted by a team of over 120 scientists from various institutions worldwide, including the University of Exeter in the UK, presents the Global Carbon Budget report. This annual, peer-reviewed update utilizes established methodologies to provide critical insights into carbon emissions.
According to the report, global emissions from coal, oil, and gas are set to rise by 1.1%, 1.5%, and 0.5% respectively. However, the European Union (EU) and the United States are expected to experience a decline in carbon emissions by 7.4% and 3% respectively.
This study serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for global action to combat rising carbon emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The researchers predict that the total global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from fossil fuels and land-use change will reach 40.9 billion tonnes in 2023. Of this, 36.8 billion tonnes will be attributed to fossil fuels, marking a 1.1% increase from 2022.
Furthermore, the study highlights that atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to average 419.3 parts per million in 2023, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 50%. These findings are outlined in the upcoming publication of the research in the journal Earth System Science Data.
The report also emphasizes the current insufficiency of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal methods, excluding nature-based approaches such as reforestation. The researchers note that these methods currently remove only around 0.01 million tonnes of CO2—significantly less than the current fossil CO2 emissions.
Despite approximately half of all emitted CO2 being absorbed by land and ocean “sinks,” the remaining portion remains in the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.
When addressing the possibility of meeting the temperature targets set by the Paris Agreement, the research team expresses concerns. They estimate a 50% chance that global warming will consistently exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit within the next seven years if current emissions persist.
Pierre Friedlingstein, the lead researcher from the University of Exeter, warns that it now seems inevitable that the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be surpassed. He asserts that leaders convening at COP28 will need to agree upon swift reductions in fossil fuel emissions to maintain the viability of the 2 degrees Celsius target.