Scientists predict record-breaking warm winter ahead

Researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, have made a startling prediction: there is a 95% chance that global average surface temperatures will break historical records during the upcoming winter season, 2023-24. This forecast has raised concerns among experts, as regions in the mid-low latitudes of Eurasia and most parts of the Americas are expected to experience an exceptionally warm winter.

The scientists attribute these anticipated outcomes to the imminent maturity of a moderate to strong Eastern Pacific El Nino. This powerful weather phenomenon is set to trigger anomalous anticyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific, which will have a significant impact on the winter climates of East Asia and North America. Their findings have been published in the renowned journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

China, in particular, is expected to witness surface temperatures more than double the usual readings, potentially setting a new winter temperature record since 1991. Remarkably, this prediction comes off the heels of scorching heatwaves experienced during the summer and autumn months of 2023, raising concerns about the world’s climatic conditions in the coming winter.

The months of June to October 2023 have recorded extreme temperatures, with a consistent global warming trend across oceans and landmasses. In fact, the global average temperature during this period surpassed the 1991-2020 average by a staggering 0.57 degrees Celsius, according to the research team. Moreover, August and September witnessed even higher temperatures, surpassing historical averages by 0.62 and 0.69 degrees Celsius, respectively, and breaking the records set in 2016.